Davis Strait forecasting for 2008 begins!

Forecast for the Davis Strait Fri Aug 29 2008 16 UTC

Synopsis...A warm front will be moving into the region, marking the beginning of a period of unsettled weather over the next few days. Expect an increase in clouds and showers on Saturday, with periods of rain showers thereafter. Winds will be shifting to southeasterly (from the southeast) and gradually increasing from about 10 knots Saturday to 20 knots on Sunday. Air temperatures will range from as high as 6 deg C near the Greenland coast to as cool as 3 deg C near Baffin Island, with only little changes throughout the period.

Friday night and Saturday...Increasing clouds with rain showers likely, especially toward the west. Winds becoming southeast at 5-10 knots. Strongest winds southwest of the Davis Strait near the Hudson Strait.

Sunday...Mostly cloudy with periods of rain. Southeast winds increasing to over 20 knots in the central waters.

Monday....Periods of rain continuing. Southeast winds of 15-20 knots, especially in the central waters.

Outlook...Conditions may stay unsettled until midweek.

A rainy Seattle August

If you thought it has been unusually wet this August in Seattle, you're right. In fact, so far, it is the 5th wettest August on record at Sea-tac airport. Here's a list of the rainiest August's on record:

1. 4.59" in 1975
2. 4.58" in 1968
3. 3.59" in 1977
4. 3.00" in 2004
5. 2.86" in 2008 (through August 26th)

The average precipitation is 1.07" in August. The top chart shows that there is about a 50% chance Seattle will get 0.75" of rain in any given August. So although August is pretty dry, rainy days in August are not all that unheard of in general.

The bottom chart shows that Seatac only gets over 2.5" of rain in August a little less frequently than once every ten years. Seattle gets over 3" of rain in August once every 20 years.

Heat wave on the way to seattle

Seattle might be getting a taste of summer finally over the next few days, with possible record highs expected. The map shows the forecast high temperatures in the region for Friday.

The most probable high temperature in zip code 98102 is 91F for Friday. There is a 1 and 10 chance the high will be lower than 86, and a 1 and 10 chance it will be higher than 96.

The earliest 90+ degree day on record at Sea-tac airport is May 20. The forecast and record highs at Sea-tac are:
Day/forecast high/record high
Thursday/75/85
Friday/92/84
Saturday/85/85

The image is from the UW probcast, at http://probcast.washington.edu/

Almost cold enough...but not quite

There is another chance of snow for the lowlands (including the city of Seattle) for Saturday. A low pressure will be moving southeast out of the Pacific and likely moving south of us Saturday night (see top panel in Figure). This is generally a good setup for snow for the lowlands because it allows moisture to come in from the Pacific and cold air to filter in from the interior over western WA. HOWEVER, the temperatures are not looking quite cold enough for snow down to sea level, and most of the moisture may stay south of the area, leaving only a marginal chance of lowland snow at best.

The bottom panel shows the probabilites for freezing temperatures and the probability for precipitation Saturday night using a combination of the forecast models. Using that and other information, here is the forecast:

Saturday...Mostly cloudy with showers likely. High temperatures around 41. Chance of precipitation 70%. Snow levels around 500 feet. Chance of snow at sea level less than 20%.

Saturday night...Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 34. Showers may mix with snow at times, especially on the higher hill tops. Chance of snow at sea level 20%.

Snow in Seattle tonight?

Lots of talk this morning concerning the snow potential for the Seattle area tonight. Below I've done my best to pull together what the forecast models, the National Weather Service, word on the atmos street, along with a little of my own intuition to say what I think is the most likely scenario for tonight.

Synopsis...A frontal system will be moving into the area tonight, bringing precipitation into an already cold air mass. However, the front will be bringing warmer air with it. It appears that the most likely scenario tonight is for rain in Seattle at elevations below 500 feet. The greatest chance of snow will be during the day today, ahead of the main system, where the airmass will be unstable. Expect scattered, locally heavy snow. The main system moves in tonight. Expect widespread precipitation to begin between 8 and 10 pm tonight. Precipitation may initially begin as snow, but should turn over to rain by midnight in all areas of the city.

The rest of today...Scattered snow showers with localized accumulations of 1-2" possible. Temperatures in the mid 30's.

Tonight...Rain developing, possibly mixing with snow before midnight, especially at elevations above 500 feet. Chance of precipitation near 100%. Low temperature of about 34, slowly rising overnight. Since there is uncertainty in the forecast, the following are approximate probabilities for (additional) accumulating snow in the city of Seattle at elevations below 500 feet:
0 = 60%
Tr-2" = 30%
2"+ = 10%

Tuesday....Rain, tapering off to scattered showers. Snow level rising to 1000 feet. Highs around 39.

Puget Sound Convergence Zone Strikes Capitol Hill

The so called "Puget Sound Convergence Zone" (PSCZ) hit parts of the Seattle area yesterday evening leaving an icy mess for the commuters this morning. Especially hard hit areas were Capitol Hill, downtown, the U-district, and other parts of North Seattle.

The PSCZ occurs after a front passes, when air moving in from the west or northwest can not move over the Olympic Mountains but instead moves around them and converges on the eastern side. This convergence of the winds sometimes results in an often narrow band of precipitation, as apparent on radar last night (first image below). If you look at the weather station observations, south of the precip band winds are southerly and north of the band winds are northerly.

Precipitation was in the form of rain turning to a mix of rain/snow/sleet or completely changing over to snow in some areas. After it stopped, skies cleared and nighttime temperatures dropped to below freezing, allowing everything to freeze.

Photos below:
First: Radar and surface weather observations in Puget Sound Region Jan 14 7pm. The interstates are shown in red and Capitol Hill is marked as a reference.
Second: Harrison St looking west Jan 15 8:30am.
Third: Harrison St from Summit looking east toward Broadway. Despite the icy conditions, schools were not delayed and school buses were still running normally.
Fourth: Buses were rerouted along Broadway Avenue, and delays occurred. Bus stops were unusually crowded, such as the one at Broadway and E John.
Fifth: This was our first winter weather event without you Taco Bell, we'll miss you.

All pictures of Capitol Hill streets were taken at approximately 8:30am on Tuesday January 15, 2008.

Cold rains for Seattle this weekend

Synopsis...2 weather systems will be affecting the Seattle area this weekend. They are labelled "1" and "2" on the weather map to the right, which shows these systems circled on a satellite image with their forecast movement. System 1 will be bringing widespread rain into the area tonight, with scattered showers lingering during the day Saturday. System 2 will affect the area on Sunday. Rainfall amounts of up to an inch expected in Seattle this weekend. Snow levels will be around 2000 feet. Forecast models are in good agreement. On the scale very low, low, moderate, high, very high, confidence for this weekend's forecasts are high for system 1 and moderate for system 2, as the timing of the rains could be slightly off for Sunday.

Tonight...Rain developing, should become widespread by midnight. Cold with temperatures in the upper 30's. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tomorrow...Rain early, tapering off to scattered showers, possibly heavy at times. Chance of rain 70 percent. Highs around 45.

Saturday night and Sunday...Rain developing Saturday night and possibly lasting through much of the day on Sunday. Rain will taper off to showers behind the cold front, forecast to pass Sunday afternoon at this time. Low of about 38 and high of about 45. Chance of rain 90 percent.