*** Weather Office Canada has issued a gale warning for the southern half of the Davis Strait. A gale warning means winds are expected to reach 34-47 knots. ***
Synopsis...A 977 mb low pressure will be moving east out of the Hudson Strait. It will stay well south of the Davis Strait, however the pressure gradient will be strong enough to cause gale force winds late Saturday and Sunday. Conditions will improve Monday and stay good through Tuesday.
The rest of today, tonight, and Sunday...Increasing clouds. A chance of rain, sleet, or snow, but most of it will stay south of the area. Easterly winds increasing to 20 knots by 00 UTC Sunday. Winds becoming northerly and increasing to around 30 knots in most locations from around 09 UTC Sunday - 00 UTC Monday. Strongest winds will be further south with lighter winds north of the Davis Strait. Significant wave heights expected to reach 3-3.5 meters. Air temperatures 2 deg C west to 4 deg C east.
Monday...North winds of 30 knots gradually decreasing to 10 knots by days end. Air temperatures 1-3 deg C.
Outlook...Conditions are looking good on Tuesday.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Friday, September 19, 2008
Possible gales developing late Saturday
** Gale force winds are possible, especially south of the Davis Strait late Saturday and Sunday **
Synopsis...A low pressure with a forecast minimum sea level pressure of ~980 mb will be moving south of the Davis Strait late Saturday and Sunday. It will likely be close enough to cause gale force winds, especially toward the south and also in the western Davis Strait near the coast of Baffin Island.
Saturday...Partly cloudy with light and variable winds of generally less than 10 knots. Increasing clouds and winds late, with easterly winds of 30 knots developing by 00 UTC 9/21 (Sunday) south of the Davis Strait. Air temperatures around 1-3 deg C.
Sunday...Windy with rain, sleet, or snow showers possible. Winds becoming out of the north, possibly reaching gale strength. Sustained winds are expected to be around 30-35 knots with higher gusts in a line from the Davis Strait south. Significant wave heights may reach 4 meters south. Air temperatures ranging from 1 deg C west to 4 deg C east.
Synopsis...A low pressure with a forecast minimum sea level pressure of ~980 mb will be moving south of the Davis Strait late Saturday and Sunday. It will likely be close enough to cause gale force winds, especially toward the south and also in the western Davis Strait near the coast of Baffin Island.
Saturday...Partly cloudy with light and variable winds of generally less than 10 knots. Increasing clouds and winds late, with easterly winds of 30 knots developing by 00 UTC 9/21 (Sunday) south of the Davis Strait. Air temperatures around 1-3 deg C.
Sunday...Windy with rain, sleet, or snow showers possible. Winds becoming out of the north, possibly reaching gale strength. Sustained winds are expected to be around 30-35 knots with higher gusts in a line from the Davis Strait south. Significant wave heights may reach 4 meters south. Air temperatures ranging from 1 deg C west to 4 deg C east.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Low beginning to move away
*** Weather Office Canada has discontinued all gale warnings for the northern Brevoort Seas and Davis Strait **** Attached is a satellite image of the low pressure (red arrow points to it), its forecast track (green arrow), and the approximate area where the Knorr is located now (blue circle). The low is wound up pretty nicely and almost has an eye. The strongest winds are being reported south and southeast of its center, with reports of 50+ knot winds. *
Synopsis...A low pressure of ~977 mb is currently located at ~63N,63W, and is moving to the southeast. Strongest winds are to the south of the low center, while winds of ~30 knots are being reported on the northwest side. Conditions will slowly start to improve as the low moves away.
The rest of today, tonight, and Friday...Northerly winds of 30-35 knots near the Baffin Island coast are expected to continue until about 03 UTC tonight (9/19). Otherwise winds will become northerly everywhere but will still be around 20 knots through tomorrow (Friday). Scattered rain, sleet, or snow showers, with peaks of sun (or stars) becoming more frequent. Significant wave heights of 3+ meters possible, especially south, but decreasing to 1-2 meters Friday. Air temperatures ranging from 1 deg C northwest to 6 deg C southeast.
Saturday...Partly cloudy, increasing clouds late. Light and variable winds early, northerly winds may pick late as a low pressure moves closer to the area. The low pressure is currently forecast to miss the area, but will keep an eye on it. Cool with air temperatures ranging from 0-4 deg C.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Storm rapidly approaching
*** Weather Office Canada has issued a gale warning for the following areas: Entire Brevoort Sea, West Labrador Sea, Eastern Davis Strait ***** Gale force winds imminent in most areas over the next 36 hours. Storm force winds possible. **
* Attached is a map showing the forecast tracks from the top operation models. The blue dot is where the Knorr is now. The red boxes are where the highest winds are forecast. *
Synopsis...Analyses and satellite images indicate that a 978 mb low is currently near the mouth of the Hudson Strait. A mesoscale model forecasts the low to strengthen to a maximum strength of about 974 mb in about 12-15 hours as it moves northeast into the Labrador Sea. At about 63 deg N, 63 deg W, the low pressure will begin moving southeast. See the attached map. Strongest winds are expected to be northwest, along, and southeast of the storm track.
The rest of today, tonight, and Thursday...Widespread rain, possibly mixed with sleet or snow. Easterly winds first picking up in the southwest waters, then northerly winds picking up in the western Davis Strait. Sustained winds should begin to exceed 30 knots in the western Davis Strait between 00-06 UTC 9/18 (Thurs). The strongest winds will be southeast of its center with storm force winds most probable here, with gale force winds almost certain near Baffin Island and the western Davis Strait. Air temperatures ranging from 1 deg C west to 7 deg C southeast. Significant wave heights 4-5 meters in the western Davis Strait, 6-7 meters southeast of the low center, and 2-3.5 meters elsewhere.
Friday...Gradually improving conditions. Northerly winds, ranging from 40 knots south to 25 knots north. Scattered rain, sleet, or snow showers. Air temperatures cooling to 2-4 deg C.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Next storm set to hit Thursday
** Storm force winds possible on Thursday **
Synopsis...A low pressure over Baffin Island will continue to weaken, leaving a few showers over the area through Wednesday with windy conditions near the mouth of the Hudson Strait. Models are beginning to come to a consensus with the next low pressure system to affect the area on Thursday. Current forecasts place a 976 mb low pressure center just south of the Davis Strait by 12 UTC Thursday the 18th.
Wednesday...Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Increasing clouds late, with rain likely in the south late. Light and variable winds of around 10 knots. Wind becoming southerly southeast of the Davis Strait and increasing to 30 knots late. Air temperatures ~2 deg C west, but warming to 6-7 deg C southeast as warm air begins to advect in ahead of the low pressure system.
Thursday...Windy. Rainy. Choppy. Rain possibly mixed with sleet or snow west, especially in the heavier showers. Sustained wind will be over 40 knots, especially in the southern and western waters. Gale force winds likely, storm force winds are possible. Air temperatures 3-6 deg C. Details of this storm may change, look for the next update ~19 UTC tomorrow.
Synopsis...A low pressure over Baffin Island will continue to weaken, leaving a few showers over the area through Wednesday with windy conditions near the mouth of the Hudson Strait. Models are beginning to come to a consensus with the next low pressure system to affect the area on Thursday. Current forecasts place a 976 mb low pressure center just south of the Davis Strait by 12 UTC Thursday the 18th.
Wednesday...Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Increasing clouds late, with rain likely in the south late. Light and variable winds of around 10 knots. Wind becoming southerly southeast of the Davis Strait and increasing to 30 knots late. Air temperatures ~2 deg C west, but warming to 6-7 deg C southeast as warm air begins to advect in ahead of the low pressure system.
Thursday...Windy. Rainy. Choppy. Rain possibly mixed with sleet or snow west, especially in the heavier showers. Sustained wind will be over 40 knots, especially in the southern and western waters. Gale force winds likely, storm force winds are possible. Air temperatures 3-6 deg C. Details of this storm may change, look for the next update ~19 UTC tomorrow.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Relatively calm....for now
Synopsis...A low pressure rapidly deepened over the southeast Davis Strait Sunday, and data on board the Knorr showed peak winds of over 50 knots with a minimum pressure of 985 mb. A weak low pressure is forecast to affect the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, but winds should remain relatively light. Forecast models currently show the possibility that a strong low pressure will affect the area on Thursday, which if it develops as predicted, would bring gale force winds.
Tuesday...Increasing clouds with scattered showers developing. Winds generally out of the south at less than 10 knots, except near the Hudson Strait where winds will be out of the west at around 30 knots. Warmer with highs near 4 deg C west, and 6 deg C east.
Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Air temperatures around 3 deg C west, to 5 deg C east. Light winds except south near the Hudson Strait, with west winds again around 30 knots.
Outlook...Gale force winds are possible on Thursday. Uncertainty is pretty high still.
Tuesday...Increasing clouds with scattered showers developing. Winds generally out of the south at less than 10 knots, except near the Hudson Strait where winds will be out of the west at around 30 knots. Warmer with highs near 4 deg C west, and 6 deg C east.
Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Air temperatures around 3 deg C west, to 5 deg C east. Light winds except south near the Hudson Strait, with west winds again around 30 knots.
Outlook...Gale force winds are possible on Thursday. Uncertainty is pretty high still.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Gale Warning for Southeastern Davis Strait
*** Weather Office Canada has issued a gale warning in the northern half of East Brevoort, southeast of the Davis Strait. 'Gale' force winds of 34 to 47 knots are occurring in this marine area.
Synopsis...A low pressure with a central minimum pressure of ~987 mb has developed and moved into the region, bringing gale force winds, high seas, and rain. Winds will be gradually decreasing overnight and throughout the day on Monday.
Sunday night and Monday...High wind, high seas, and rain showers. Strongest winds in the southeastern Davis Strait, with southeast winds sustained at up to 35-40 knots with higher gusts. Peak winds should occur between 15-21 UTC. As the low pressure and associated cold front pass, winds will switch to westerly and will be sustained at around 30-35 knots with higher gusts in most regions, mainly between 18 UTC Sunday 9/14 and 06 UTC Monday 9/15. Significant wave heights will be around 3 meters in most locations, and may locally exceed 4 meters, with the peak occurring around 00 UTC 9/15 in the eastern Strait. Conditions will be improving throughout the day Monday, with decreasing clouds and winds. Cooler air temperatures, with temperatures around 2 deg C west to 4 deg C east.
Tuesday...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Winds becoming southerly around 10 knots. Air temperatures 2-4 deg C. North winds of 25-30 knots will possibly be affecting the southeastern strait later in the day as the remnants of hurricane Ike move south of the area.
Outlook...Conditions will be remaining rather unsettled.
Synopsis...A low pressure with a central minimum pressure of ~987 mb has developed and moved into the region, bringing gale force winds, high seas, and rain. Winds will be gradually decreasing overnight and throughout the day on Monday.
Sunday night and Monday...High wind, high seas, and rain showers. Strongest winds in the southeastern Davis Strait, with southeast winds sustained at up to 35-40 knots with higher gusts. Peak winds should occur between 15-21 UTC. As the low pressure and associated cold front pass, winds will switch to westerly and will be sustained at around 30-35 knots with higher gusts in most regions, mainly between 18 UTC Sunday 9/14 and 06 UTC Monday 9/15. Significant wave heights will be around 3 meters in most locations, and may locally exceed 4 meters, with the peak occurring around 00 UTC 9/15 in the eastern Strait. Conditions will be improving throughout the day Monday, with decreasing clouds and winds. Cooler air temperatures, with temperatures around 2 deg C west to 4 deg C east.
Tuesday...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Winds becoming southerly around 10 knots. Air temperatures 2-4 deg C. North winds of 25-30 knots will possibly be affecting the southeastern strait later in the day as the remnants of hurricane Ike move south of the area.
Outlook...Conditions will be remaining rather unsettled.
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