Cold rains for Seattle this weekend

Synopsis...2 weather systems will be affecting the Seattle area this weekend. They are labelled "1" and "2" on the weather map to the right, which shows these systems circled on a satellite image with their forecast movement. System 1 will be bringing widespread rain into the area tonight, with scattered showers lingering during the day Saturday. System 2 will affect the area on Sunday. Rainfall amounts of up to an inch expected in Seattle this weekend. Snow levels will be around 2000 feet. Forecast models are in good agreement. On the scale very low, low, moderate, high, very high, confidence for this weekend's forecasts are high for system 1 and moderate for system 2, as the timing of the rains could be slightly off for Sunday.

Tonight...Rain developing, should become widespread by midnight. Cold with temperatures in the upper 30's. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tomorrow...Rain early, tapering off to scattered showers, possibly heavy at times. Chance of rain 70 percent. Highs around 45.

Saturday night and Sunday...Rain developing Saturday night and possibly lasting through much of the day on Sunday. Rain will taper off to showers behind the cold front, forecast to pass Sunday afternoon at this time. Low of about 38 and high of about 45. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Weekend forecast update

For Seattle.
Synopsis...A high pressure is currently settling in over the region providing cold and dry conditions. Temperatures will drop below freezing tonight and Saturday night. This pattern will persist through much of the weekend, however a weak upper level disturbance may bring a chance of precipitation on Sunday. With cold air in place, the precipitation could be in the form of snow. There is very little confidence in the forecast for Sunday as the forecast models are in great disagreement at this time.

Forecast confidence/certainty explanation:
Forecast certainty (FC) levels: very low, low, moderate, high, very high.
FC = very high means there is a lot of certainty in the forecast.
FC = very low means there is little certainty in the forecast.

The forecast:
Friday night...decreasing clouds and cold with lows in the mid 20's to around 30 in urban areas near water. FC = high.

Saturday....Partly cloudy with highs around 40. FC = high.

Saturday night...Partly cloudy with lows in the mid 20's to around 30 in urban areas near water. FC = low.

Sunday...Increasing clouds with a 30% chance of precipitation. Highs around 40. There is a 20% chance the precipitation will be in the form of snow. FC = very low. Monitor the forecasts throughout the weekend for updates.

Weekend outlook

An upper level trough combined with offshore flow at the surface will give us a cold but dry weather pattern for this weekend. Temperatures will be below average as highs may struggle to get out of the 30's Friday and Saturday. With a lack of cloud cover, expect temperatures to drop below freezing Friday and possibly Saturday morning. There has been some talk of snow on Sunday, but due to a lack of moisture and only marginally cold temperatures, the prospect of getting more snow is very unlikely.

Wettest day in Seattle history, 2nd wettest day in Sea-tac history

Yesterday, December 3, 2007 was the 1st wettest day on record (running 24-hour totals) in the city of Seattle and 2nd wettest on record at Sea-tac airport. The pattern that set this up was the so called "Pineapple Express" where the jet stream was pointed from near Hawaii straight into western Washington providing plenty of unobscured moisture. Further, there was a lot of melting snow from a system on Saturday that gave 1-4 inches of snow in the Seattle metro to several feet in the mountains.

Be careful when reading articles from the media, as they are mixing and confusing 24-hour totals (best measurement of "storm" events) with calendar day totals (inaccurate representation of a "storm" event).

Here are some peak 24-hour precip amounts ending Monday evening 3 Dec 2007:
Bremerton, 10.78 inches
Sand Point NWS: 5.07 inches (*** All time 24-hour rainfall record ***)
115th and Greenwood: 4.65 inches (2100 PST 3 Dec 2007)
Lake Forest Park, 4.44 inches (2100 PST 3 Dec 2007)
Pacific Science Center, 4.40 inches (2100 PST 3 Dec 2007)
Capitol Hill, 4.39 inches (2100 PST 3 Dec 2007)
UW, Atmospheric Sciences U of WA: 4.37 inches (2200 PST 3 Dec 2007)
Boeing Field, 4.33 inches (2200 PST 3 Dec 2007)
Seatac, 4.11 inches (***2nd wettest 24-hour period on record; record = 5.01 inches Oct 20, 2003***)
Sequim, 0.28 inches (The Olympic Mountain rain shadow really works!)

Here are some peak wind gusts:
Lincoln City, OR: 108 knots (125 mph)
Cape Blanco OR: 95 knots (109 mph)
Cape Arago OR: 78 knots (90 mph)
Clallam Bay: 78 knots (90 mph)
Newport OR: 71 knots (85 mph)
Destruction Island WA: 81 knots (93 mph)
Sekiu, WA: 81 knots (93 mph)
Tatoosh Island WA: 75 knots (86 mph)
Cannon Beach, OR: 69 knots (80 mph)
Bellingham, WA: 63 knots (73 mph)
Aberdeen, WA: 54 knots (62 mph)
Long Beach, WA: 52 knots (60 mph)

Gale Warning, Freezing Spray Warning

Synopsis...A low pressure is moving south into the Davis Strait from Baffin Bay. Winds will continue to be on the increase Monday.

*** Gale Warning, Freezing Spray Warning in All Areas ***

Monday...Cloudy, with snow likely and very windy. Strongest winds beginning in the Davis Strait near Baffin Island early and working its way southeast toward Nuuk and the Greenland coast. Northerly winds will be sustained at over 40 knots at times. Expect significant wave heights of 5-6 meters.

Winds picking up again on Sunday

Synopsis...A low pressure will move well south of the Davis Strait, however pressure gradients will increase on Sunday possibly increasing the winds to gale strength in the southeast waters.

Sunday...Winds shifting to winds from the north and increasing, especially in the south. Winds will increase to 30-35 knots southeast of the Davis Strait near the Greenland coast by evening. Lowest winds will be in the Davis Strait near Baffin Island where the northerly winds will be increasing to about 20 knots. Seas will be roughest in the waters near Greenland towards Nuuk, with possible wave heights reaching 5 meters.

Monday...A low pressure will be moving south from Baffin Bay. This will help increase the chances of precipitation and maintain the winds. Strongest winds will be near the Greenland coast once again, south of the Davis Strait, where sustained winds may exceed gale strength.

Calm day Saturday

Synopsis...Things will be calming down on Saturday in all areas. Winds will begin to pick up again on Sunday as a weaker low pressure moves south of the area.

Tonight and Saturday....Northerly winds gradually diminishing in all regions from west to east. Winds will be light on Saturday, ranging from 5-10 knots north to 15-20 knots south. Expect breaks in the clouds but temperatures will remain cold, near 0 degrees Celsius.

Sunday...Northerly winds increasing to 20-30 knots. Increasing clouds with a chance of snow, especially south.