Monday, September 22, 2008

The Return to Nuuk

Synopsis...An intensifying low pressure will strengthen the pressure gradients a bit on Tuesday, increasing northerly winds to around 30 knots at times.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Light and variable winds of less than 10 knots increasing to around 30 knots by 00 UTC Wed. Winds of 30-35 knots possible, strongest near the Greenland coast on Wednesday. Air temperatures 3-6 deg C.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Gale Warning for Davis Strait

*** Weather Office Canada has issued a gale warning for the southern half of the Davis Strait. A gale warning means winds are expected to reach 34-47 knots. ***

Synopsis...A 977 mb low pressure will be moving east out of the Hudson Strait. It will stay well south of the Davis Strait, however the pressure gradient will be strong enough to cause gale force winds late Saturday and Sunday. Conditions will improve Monday and stay good through Tuesday.

The rest of today, tonight, and Sunday...Increasing clouds. A chance of rain, sleet, or snow, but most of it will stay south of the area. Easterly winds increasing to 20 knots by 00 UTC Sunday. Winds becoming northerly and increasing to around 30 knots in most locations from around 09 UTC Sunday - 00 UTC Monday. Strongest winds will be further south with lighter winds north of the Davis Strait. Significant wave heights expected to reach 3-3.5 meters. Air temperatures 2 deg C west to 4 deg C east.

Monday...North winds of 30 knots gradually decreasing to 10 knots by days end. Air temperatures 1-3 deg C.

Outlook...Conditions are looking good on Tuesday.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Possible gales developing late Saturday

** Gale force winds are possible, especially south of the Davis Strait late Saturday and Sunday **

Synopsis...A low pressure with a forecast minimum sea level pressure of ~980 mb will be moving south of the Davis Strait late Saturday and Sunday. It will likely be close enough to cause gale force winds, especially toward the south and also in the western Davis Strait near the coast of Baffin Island.

Saturday...Partly cloudy with light and variable winds of generally less than 10 knots. Increasing clouds and winds late, with easterly winds of 30 knots developing by 00 UTC 9/21 (Sunday) south of the Davis Strait. Air temperatures around 1-3 deg C.

Sunday...Windy with rain, sleet, or snow showers possible. Winds becoming out of the north, possibly reaching gale strength. Sustained winds are expected to be around 30-35 knots with higher gusts in a line from the Davis Strait south. Significant wave heights may reach 4 meters south. Air temperatures ranging from 1 deg C west to 4 deg C east.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Low beginning to move away

*** Weather Office Canada has discontinued all gale warnings for the northern Brevoort Seas and Davis Strait ***

* Attached is a satellite image of the low pressure (red arrow points to it), its forecast track (green arrow), and the approximate area where the Knorr is located now (blue circle). The low is wound up pretty nicely and almost has an eye. The strongest winds are being reported south and southeast of its center, with reports of 50+ knot winds. *

Synopsis...A low pressure of ~977 mb is currently located at ~63N,63W, and is moving to the southeast. Strongest winds are to the south of the low center, while winds of ~30 knots are being reported on the northwest side. Conditions will slowly start to improve as the low moves away.

The rest of today, tonight, and Friday...Northerly winds of 30-35 knots near the Baffin Island coast are expected to continue until about 03 UTC tonight (9/19). Otherwise winds will become northerly everywhere but will still be around 20 knots through tomorrow (Friday). Scattered rain, sleet, or snow showers, with peaks of sun (or stars) becoming more frequent. Significant wave heights of 3+ meters possible, especially south, but decreasing to 1-2 meters Friday. Air temperatures ranging from 1 deg C northwest to 6 deg C southeast.

Saturday...Partly cloudy, increasing clouds late. Light and variable winds early, northerly winds may pick late as a low pressure moves closer to the area. The low pressure is currently forecast to miss the area, but will keep an eye on it. Cool with air temperatures ranging from 0-4 deg C.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Storm rapidly approaching

*** Weather Office Canada has issued a gale warning for the following areas: Entire Brevoort Sea, West Labrador Sea, Eastern Davis Strait ***

** Gale force winds imminent in most areas over the next 36 hours. Storm force winds possible. **

* Attached is a map showing the forecast tracks from the top operation models. The blue dot is where the Knorr is now. The red boxes are where the highest winds are forecast. *

Synopsis...Analyses and satellite images indicate that a 978 mb low is currently near the mouth of the Hudson Strait. A mesoscale model forecasts the low to strengthen to a maximum strength of about 974 mb in about 12-15 hours as it moves northeast into the Labrador Sea. At about 63 deg N, 63 deg W, the low pressure will begin moving southeast. See the attached map. Strongest winds are expected to be northwest, along, and southeast of the storm track.

The rest of today, tonight, and Thursday...Widespread rain, possibly mixed with sleet or snow. Easterly winds first picking up in the southwest waters, then northerly winds picking up in the western Davis Strait. Sustained winds should begin to exceed 30 knots in the western Davis Strait between 00-06 UTC 9/18 (Thurs). The strongest winds will be southeast of its center with storm force winds most probable here, with gale force winds almost certain near Baffin Island and the western Davis Strait. Air temperatures ranging from 1 deg C west to 7 deg C southeast. Significant wave heights 4-5 meters in the western Davis Strait, 6-7 meters southeast of the low center, and 2-3.5 meters elsewhere.

Friday...Gradually improving conditions. Northerly winds, ranging from 40 knots south to 25 knots north. Scattered rain, sleet, or snow showers. Air temperatures cooling to 2-4 deg C.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Next storm set to hit Thursday

** Storm force winds possible on Thursday **

Synopsis...A low pressure over Baffin Island will continue to weaken, leaving a few showers over the area through Wednesday with windy conditions near the mouth of the Hudson Strait. Models are beginning to come to a consensus with the next low pressure system to affect the area on Thursday. Current forecasts place a 976 mb low pressure center just south of the Davis Strait by 12 UTC Thursday the 18th.

Wednesday...Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Increasing clouds late, with rain likely in the south late. Light and variable winds of around 10 knots. Wind becoming southerly southeast of the Davis Strait and increasing to 30 knots late. Air temperatures ~2 deg C west, but warming to 6-7 deg C southeast as warm air begins to advect in ahead of the low pressure system.

Thursday...Windy. Rainy. Choppy. Rain possibly mixed with sleet or snow west, especially in the heavier showers. Sustained wind will be over 40 knots, especially in the southern and western waters. Gale force winds likely, storm force winds are possible. Air temperatures 3-6 deg C. Details of this storm may change, look for the next update ~19 UTC tomorrow.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Relatively calm....for now

Synopsis...A low pressure rapidly deepened over the southeast Davis Strait Sunday, and data on board the Knorr showed peak winds of over 50 knots with a minimum pressure of 985 mb. A weak low pressure is forecast to affect the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, but winds should remain relatively light. Forecast models currently show the possibility that a strong low pressure will affect the area on Thursday, which if it develops as predicted, would bring gale force winds.

Tuesday...Increasing clouds with scattered showers developing. Winds generally out of the south at less than 10 knots, except near the Hudson Strait where winds will be out of the west at around 30 knots. Warmer with highs near 4 deg C west, and 6 deg C east.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Air temperatures around 3 deg C west, to 5 deg C east. Light winds except south near the Hudson Strait, with west winds again around 30 knots.

Outlook...Gale force winds are possible on Thursday. Uncertainty is pretty high still.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Gale Warning for Southeastern Davis Strait

*** Weather Office Canada has issued a gale warning in the northern half of East Brevoort, southeast of the Davis Strait. 'Gale' force winds of 34 to 47 knots are occurring in this marine area.

Synopsis...A low pressure with a central minimum pressure of ~987 mb has developed and moved into the region, bringing gale force winds, high seas, and rain. Winds will be gradually decreasing overnight and throughout the day on Monday.

Sunday night and Monday...High wind, high seas, and rain showers. Strongest winds in the southeastern Davis Strait, with southeast winds sustained at up to 35-40 knots with higher gusts. Peak winds should occur between 15-21 UTC. As the low pressure and associated cold front pass, winds will switch to westerly and will be sustained at around 30-35 knots with higher gusts in most regions, mainly between 18 UTC Sunday 9/14 and 06 UTC Monday 9/15. Significant wave heights will be around 3 meters in most locations, and may locally exceed 4 meters, with the peak occurring around 00 UTC 9/15 in the eastern Strait. Conditions will be improving throughout the day Monday, with decreasing clouds and winds. Cooler air temperatures, with temperatures around 2 deg C west to 4 deg C east.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Winds becoming southerly around 10 knots. Air temperatures 2-4 deg C. North winds of 25-30 knots will possibly be affecting the southeastern strait later in the day as the remnants of hurricane Ike move south of the area.

Outlook...Conditions will be remaining rather unsettled.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Low pressure moving in

Synopsis...Analysis maps and satellite images indicate that a weak area of low pressure has developed in the Hudson Strait. This low pressure will move into the Davis Strait over the next 24 hours. Although weak, it will be strong enough to cause breezy conditions with rain and/or snow showers.

Sunday...Windy with periods of rain showers. Rain showers may possibly mix with sleet or snow northwest. Winds out of the south early, then changing to northerly as the low pressure passes. Sustained winds may reach gale strength (34+ knots) in the Davis Strait, but will generally be sustained at 20-30 knots in most locations with higher gusts. Strongest winds expected between 18 UTC 9/14 and 6 UTC 9/15. Roughest seas are expected to be in the eastern strait between 15-23 UTC with 2-3 meter significant wave heights expected. Air temperatures ranging from ~2 deg C northwest to 6 deg C southeast.

Monday...Improving conditions. Winds decreasing to 10-20 knots. Air temperatures 2-4 deg C.

Outlook...Today's forecast model runs are taking the remnants of Hurricane Ike south of the region. However, winds may still pick up as it passes to the south. Uncertainty is still very high at this time.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Certainly uncertain

Synopsis...As the energy from hurricane Ike enters the jet stream, forecast models are having a very tough time with even short term forecasts leaving exceptionally high uncertainty in the forecasts for the next several days.

Saturday...Partly to mostly cloudy, with a chance of fog in the morning, especially west. Wind becoming southerly at 10-20 knots in most areas, with stronger winds possible just north of the Davis Strait. Light rain showers possible. Air temperatures ranging from 2-5 deg C, warmest toward the west.

Sunday...A fair possibility exists for the development of a low pressure system near the Davis Strait, although there is not good agreement in the different forecast models or even in the same forecast models between runs. If one develops, there could be winds around 30 knots with rain possibly mixed with snow showers likely. Otherwise rain showers are still likely, but the winds would be lower and air temperatures slightly warmer.

Outlook...Several major storms will be passing by closely, but it is too early to determine their exact locations at this point. It is a pretty good bet at least one of these will affect the region, probably by midweek.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Slowly getting stormier

Synopsis...A weak low pressure moving out of the Hudson Strait will be enough to increase southerly winds in the western Davis Strait on late Friday and throughout Saturday. A possible stronger low pressure is forecast to hit the region Monday or Tuesday.

Friday...While 20-25 knot winds out of the north in the southeastern Davis strait will be gradually diminishing, southerly winds will start to increase in the western strait in response to a weak low pressure. Skies will be mostly cloudy with a slight chance of an isolated rain shower. Air temperatures about 2-5 deg C.

Saturday...Windy in the western Davis Strait, with southerly winds increasing to 20-30 knots. Winds weakest in the eastern strait, with magnitudes of about 5-10 knots. Rain showers are also likely. Air temperatures about 2-5 deg C. Significant wave heights possibly 1-2 meters in the western strait.

Outlook...Still watching a possible major low pressure system to affect the area early next week which may be the remnants of hurricane Ike. Forecast uncertainty is high at this time.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Things still generally good

Synopsis...A series of low pressure centers spinning near Hudson Bay will provide periods of increased cloud cover with a slight chance of rain showers the next few days. Winds should stay generally light, with the exception of the eastern Davis Strait where winds will once again be picking up on Thursday due to a low pressure passing well to the south.

Thursday...Mostly cloudy, with a slight chance of rain showers. Variable winds of less than 10 knots, except northerly winds picking up in the eastern strait to around 20 knots late. Air temperatures ranging from 3-6 deg C, coolest toward the west. Significant wave heights less than 1 meter, except possibly reaching 1 meter by days end in the eastern strait.

Friday...Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers not out of the question. Variable winds less than 15 knots except in the eastern strait where they could be sustained at 20-25 knots out of the north. Significant wave heights could reach over 2 meters in the extreme southeastern strait, and remaining less than 1 meter west. Air temperatures 2-5 deg C.

Outlook...Eyes will be on the latest forecast model runs of a large low pressure system to possibly affect the area Monday. Uncertainty is still high at this time, however it has been in 2 consecutive model runs.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Nothin' but calm weather on the horizon

Synopsis...Good weather will be continuing into the foreseeable future with no major weather systems on the way. Other than a little forecaster boredom in having nothing to predict, there are no major concerns at this time.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy with morning fog possible. Light northerly winds of 5-10 knots, except possibly in the eastern strait where winds may reach around 15 knots at times in response to a low pressure system passing well to the south. Air temperatures ranging around 2-4 deg C.

Thursday...Partly cloudy with morning fog possible. Light northerly winds of 5-10 knots everywhere. Air temperatures ranging around 2-4 deg C.

Outlook...No changes until possibly the weekend.

Monday, September 8, 2008

Calm days ahead

Synopsis...There are no major weather systems in the forecast over the next few days, leaving light winds, calm seas, and peaks of sunshine. Light winds will increase the likelihood for fog. Northerly winds may increase from time to time in the eastern Strait due to low pressure systems passing well south of the area.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy with a few light rain showers not out of the question. Foggy conditions possible. High temperatures ~4 deg C. Variable winds of 5-10 knots. Northerly winds may increase to around 15 knots in the eastern strait during the afternoon.

Wednesday...Partly clouds with generally light winds and fog possible. High temperatures around 4 deg C. Northerly winds may once again be stronger in the eastern strait with speeds of around 15-20 knots.

Outlook...No weather pattern changes anticipated at this time.

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Improving conditions

Edited 22 UTC 9/6 for observations

Synopsis...The low pressure responsible for the strong winds is slowly moving out of the area. Northerly winds will be gradually diminishing over the next 24 hours.

The rest of Saturday night...Northerly winds sustained at up 20-25 knots, especially in the eastern Strait. Wind diminishing to 10 knots elsewhere. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers possible. Significant wave heights of up to 2 meters, especially east, decreasing to less than 1 meter elsewhere.

Sunday...Partly cloudy with northwesterly winds decreasing to less than 10 knots everywhere. Significant wave heights of 1 meter or less. Air temperatures around 4 deg C.

Monday...Morning fog likely, then partly cloudy. Variable winds around 5 knots.

Outlook...No major weather systems on the horizon.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Gale warning for Western Davis Strait

Forecast updated at 19 UTC, 9/5/2008

*** Weather Office Canada has continued the Gale Warning in effect for the western half of the Davis Strait ***

Synopsis...Analysis charts indicate a 988 mb low pressure system currently located near the Davis Strait. Northerly winds around the back side of the low pressure should continue to pick up in the western Davis Strait as the low pressure continues to move east.

The rest of today, tonight and Saturday...Clouds, showers, and strong northerly winds, especially in the western Davis Strait. Winds could be up to 30-35 knots in the western strait from now until about 21 UTC, then they will gradually begin to decrease. Winds in the eastern strait will increase to 20-25 knots around 6 UTC Saturday 9/6, but should drop below 20 knots by 20 UTC Saturday 9/6. An area of significant wave heights of 2-3 meters , shifting from the west to the east throughout the day is forecasted.

Sunday...Improving conditions, with northerly winds of 15-20 knots in the eastern strait gradually decreasing. Winds in the western Strait should be 5-15 knots. Significant wave heights of less than 2 meters expected everywhere, with the calmest seas in the western strait.

Outlook...No major weather systems expected into midweek.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Gale Warnings in effect for Davis Strait




*** Weather Office Canada has issued a gale warning for the western and southern half of the Davis Strait as gale force winds of 34 to 47 knots are expected to occur. ***

** The map above highlights what to expect, with low pressure centers marked by the "L" and areas with strongest winds highlighed in the red areas. **

Synopsis...Analysis charts show a pair of low pressure centers, the strongest having a minimum central pressure of about 988 mb quickly approaching the area. Forecasts are for these two low pressure systems to continue to strengthen and merge over the Davis Strait between 00 and 06 UTC tonight (Friday). Winds will be strongest initially southeast of the Davis Strait near the Greenland coast through 06 UTC tonight (Friday) but will pick up drastically in the western and southern sections of the Davis Strait beginning around 00 UTC tonight (Friday).

The rest of today and Friday...Rapidly deteriorating conditions throughout the entire region. Sustained southerly to southeasterly winds of 35-40+ knots are expected south of the Davis Strait, near the Greenland coast from about 18 UTC today (Thursday) to 06 UTC tonight (Friday). As the low pressure approaches from the southwest, strong eastery winds will develop ahead of it just south of the Davis Strait around 21 UTC today (Thursday). When the low pressure begins to drift east, strong northerly winds will develop on its backside, with the strongest winds being in the western and southern Davis Strait regions beginning around 03-06 UTC Friday. Significant wave heights of over 4 meters possible, highest in the western Davis Strait. Rainy conditions, especially between now and 12 UTC tomorrow 9/5. Rain may mix with snow or sleet at times, especially late Friday.

Saturday...Northerly winds through the entire region sustained at 20-30 knots likely, with higher gusts. Scattered rain showers, possibly mixing with snow or sleet at times.

Outlook...Conditions expected to gradually improve beginning on Sunday.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Low pressure approaching


Forecast for Davis Strait, made 9-3-2008 at 19 UTC.

*** Gale force winds possible on Thursday 9-4 ***

Synopsis...A low pressure system has developed and will be moving into the region from the Hudson Strait on Thursday 9-4. This will bring with it rain and possibly gale force winds. Expect the unsettled conditions with periods of rain and high winds to remain through Saturday.

Thursday...Increasing clouds and winds, with rain likely late. South to easterly winds should increase to over 20 knots by 16 UTC, possibly reaching gale strength at times thereafter, especially in the southern waters. Expect the strongest winds to be located southeast of the Davis Strait near the Greenland coast, where sustained winds may be 35-40 knots. Winds elsewhere should be sustained at 15-30 knots with higher gusts, and the weakest winds will be north of the Davis Strait. See the attached map for a snapshot of the forecast winds at 22 UTC. Significant wave heights could reach 5 meters in the area of strongest winds, with about 1.5-2 meters elsewhere.

Friday...Wind, rain, and rough seas are expected to hang around. A secondary winds maximum may develop along the western Davis Strait near Baffin Island to northerly (out of the north) 25+ knots sustained with higher gusts as the low pressure passes by.

Outlook...After the low pressure passes by, there will be a period of significant northerly winds late Friday and through the day Saturday. Conditions currently are expected to improve Sunday.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Calmer conditions Wednesday, Possible Gale on Thursday

Davis Strait forecast update, 9-2-2008 @ 18 UTC

** Gale force winds possible on Thursday 9-4**

Synopsis...A low pressure currently over the area will be weakening and exiting out the region, leaving relatively calm conditions on Wednesday. However, this will be short-lived as a significant low pressure system will be moving up from the southwest, likely reaching the area late on Thursday.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with lingerning scattered, light rain showers possible. South winds of 10-15 knots weakening to variable winds of less than 10 knots in the western waters, with up to 10-15 knot winds remaining in the eastern waters near the Greenland coast in the Davis Strait. Air temperatures of 2-4 deg C over the western waters, and 4-6 deg C over the eastern waters. Seas calming with significant wave heights dropping to under 1 meter everywhere.

Thursday...Increasing clouds and winds, with heavy rain possible late. South wind possibly increasing to over 30 knots, sustained, late. Will update this forecast again tomorrow (Wed) ~19 UTC.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Davis Strait Update 9-1-2008

Davis Strait forecast beginning 9-2-2008.

Synopsis...A general area of low pressure will remain over the area over the next 36-48 hours, keeping unsettled weather conditions with periods of rain and wind through Tuesday 9-2-2008. There may be a brief break on Wed 9-3 before a potentially larger low pressure system moves in on Thursday 9-4.

Tuesday...Periods of rain and wind continuing. Southeast winds sustained of up to 25 knots with higher gusts, with the highest winds early in the eastern waters near the Greenland coast. Wind gradually decreasing from south to north throughout the day. Air temperatures about 2-5 deg C, coolest west.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with light, scattered rain showers possible. South wind of 5-15 knots, possibly turning to west or north winds late.

Outlook...A low pressure system (about 988 mb) is expected to move up from the south on Thursday. This may bring windy conditions, and may have moisture from the remnants of hurricane Gustav. Will have an update tomorrow around 19 UTC.