Lots of talk this morning concerning the snow potential for the Seattle area tonight. Below I've done my best to pull together what the forecast models, the National Weather Service, word on the atmos street, along with a little of my own intuition to say what I think is the most likely scenario for tonight.
Synopsis...A frontal system will be moving into the area tonight, bringing precipitation into an already cold air mass. However, the front will be bringing warmer air with it. It appears that the most likely scenario tonight is for rain in Seattle at elevations below 500 feet. The greatest chance of snow will be during the day today, ahead of the main system, where the airmass will be unstable. Expect scattered, locally heavy snow. The main system moves in tonight. Expect widespread precipitation to begin between 8 and 10 pm tonight. Precipitation may initially begin as snow, but should turn over to rain by midnight in all areas of the city.
The rest of today...Scattered snow showers with localized accumulations of 1-2" possible. Temperatures in the mid 30's.
Tonight...Rain developing, possibly mixing with snow before midnight, especially at elevations above 500 feet. Chance of precipitation near 100%. Low temperature of about 34, slowly rising overnight. Since there is uncertainty in the forecast, the following are approximate probabilities for (additional) accumulating snow in the city of Seattle at elevations below 500 feet:
0 = 60%
Tr-2" = 30%
2"+ = 10%
Tuesday....Rain, tapering off to scattered showers. Snow level rising to 1000 feet. Highs around 39.
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2 comments:
Looks like we got rain but not much snow or ice, at least in Seattle and Redmond. Honestly I'm happier for it, given the commute. Why can't the snow come on weekends? :)
Yeah looks like the forecast verified pretty well, with 0 snow accumulating in almost all areas under 500 feet last night (The most probable scenario) in the Seattle area. A Report from a weather service spotter indicated a snow level of 500 feet. Other than a chance for snow in the Puget Sound Convergence Zone tonight, this may be it for our snow chances for a while.
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