Friday, September 12, 2008

Certainly uncertain

Synopsis...As the energy from hurricane Ike enters the jet stream, forecast models are having a very tough time with even short term forecasts leaving exceptionally high uncertainty in the forecasts for the next several days.

Saturday...Partly to mostly cloudy, with a chance of fog in the morning, especially west. Wind becoming southerly at 10-20 knots in most areas, with stronger winds possible just north of the Davis Strait. Light rain showers possible. Air temperatures ranging from 2-5 deg C, warmest toward the west.

Sunday...A fair possibility exists for the development of a low pressure system near the Davis Strait, although there is not good agreement in the different forecast models or even in the same forecast models between runs. If one develops, there could be winds around 30 knots with rain possibly mixed with snow showers likely. Otherwise rain showers are still likely, but the winds would be lower and air temperatures slightly warmer.

Outlook...Several major storms will be passing by closely, but it is too early to determine their exact locations at this point. It is a pretty good bet at least one of these will affect the region, probably by midweek.

No comments: