Yukon weather report

Looks like it was a good weekend at Whitehorse. Attached is a figure summing up the weather. Red line = actual highs, Blue line = actual lows, Green line = average highs, yellow line = average lows, magenta = record highs, cyan = record lows.

A record high of 50F was broken on Sunday! The old record was 43F which occurred in 1948. Only 10 days earlier the temperatures was -40F.

No rain fell on Saturday, so January 17 is still a rainless day in Whitehorse.

Temperatures are currently still above freezing, but are expected to drop to about 18F by the end of today. It has been over 3 days since the temperature has been below freezing.

Final Yukon Weather Update

Forecast for Whitehorse, Yukon:

Friday...Increasing cloudiness. Highs in the low 40's*. Southerly winds 10-20 mph.

Friday night...Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Lows in the upper 30's. Southerly winds 10-20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday...Cloudy with rain* showers likely. High temperatures in the upper 40's*. South winds 15-20 mph, with localized areas of winds over 45 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Saturday night...Rain likely. Lows around 40. South winds 15-25 mph, with localized areas of winds over 45 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Sunday...Occasional rain showers, mixing with snow late. Highs in the mid *40's, with temperatures decreasing into the mid 30's. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Sunday night and Monday...Mostly cloudy with a mix of rain and snow showers. Temperatures decreasing into the 20's. Precipitation chances increasing late morning.

Records that may be broken:
Friday: Record high is 41.
Saturday: Precipitation has never fallen in the form of rain in Whitehorse on this day.
Saturday: Record high is 48.
Saturday: Average high is 7F. This makes the LOW temperature ~33F above average HIGH
Sunday: Record high is 43.

Discussion:
Continued model trends of warmer temperatures and a delayed return of cold air. Chances that precip will be rain and not snow are fairly high through Saturday. Sunday's temperatures are now marginally cold enough for snow, and precipitation type still rather uncertain. Downslope winds (winds forced from strong winds flowing over mountain ranges) are another concern, with the greatest chances for this on Saturday and early Sunday. Although these winds occur in very localized areas, they can be quite intense. Latest forecast model runs show a strong low pressure approaching the area by midday Monday. This shouldn't be an issue since you leave early in the morning, however something to keep mindful of, especially since forecast models just now started to forecast this.

Yukon Forecast Details

Forecast for *Whitehorse, Yukon:

Friday....Mostly sunny and warm. Increasing clouds late. Highs near 45F.

Friday night....Mostly cloudy with showers developing, probably in the form of rain. Lows in the mid 30's.

Saturday...Mostly cloudy with occasional rain showers likely, especially early. Highs around 40F. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Saturday night...Rain or snow re-developing. Possibly heavy at times. Lows around 32F. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Sunday...A good chance of showers, probably in the form of rain early, changing to snow late. Highs around 40F, then decreasing to near 32F by the end of the day. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Sunday night and Monday...Occasional snow showers. Temperatures steadily decreasing into the low 20's.

* Forecasts are for the Whitehorse Airport, Yukon, elevation 2317 ft above sea level.

Discussion:
VERY tricky forecast since temperatures will be marginally cold enough for snow during much of the forecast period. To add to that, forecast models are not agreeing on the exact timing of the precipitation bands. Therefore overall uncertainty for the forecast is high. The weather maps attached are a visual aid of the forecast surface fronts and most likely areas for precipitation.

Tuesday Whitehorse Weather Update

Nearly 4 inches of snow fell yesterday at Whitehorse with a high of about -4 deg F. However the airport is reporting a total of 13 inches on the ground today, a total curiously similar to yesterday report before the new snow fell.

Thoughts:
Forecast models are tending to hold onto the ridge of high pressure with each successive model run. This is not good news for cold weather fans. Today's figure shows a plot of upper levels winds (colors) over time across all longitudes of the globe. The red colors are south winds and the blue colors are north winds in upper levels of the atmosphere, around 5 km above the ground. The location of Whitehorse is marked by the bold black line (-135 longitude). The white area in between the reds and blues is the center of the high pressure ridge (calm winds at the center of a high pressure). Things to notice:
(1) The ridge of high pressure is showing very strong resistance to move eastward (to the right) over time and
(2) By Friday night and into Saturday, the jet stream may move closer to the area, increasing the chances of precipitation.
What you can not see as easily from the map are the temperatures. A ridge of high pressure in upper levels of the atmosphere means warm temperatures. As long as this center of the high pressure is nearby, temperatures will stay warm.

Forecast:
Warm temperatures are now likely to hang on through Saturday. Highs are looking to be 35-40 deg F Friday and Saturday. Clouds will be on the increase Friday and especially Saturday, which will also keep low temperatures warm, probably above freezing both Friday and Saturday. Therefore any precipitation on Friday or Saturday should be in the form of rain. Forecast still on track for cooler temperatures Sunday with a changeover of any precip to snow.

Fun Facts:
--- If rain falls on Saturday, this would be the first time that it has ever rained on that date in Whitehorse.
--- Low temperatures Friday and Saturday may be running 25 deg F above the average HIGH temperature
--- Record high temperatures are a good possibility

Yukon Weather Update

It has been a cold and snowy weekend for the Whitehorse area this weekend, with high temperatures around -20 deg F. About 4-5 inches of snow fell, and Whitehorse Airport is reporting 13.4 inches of snow on the ground currently.

Overview:
A strong ridge of high pressure will be moving into the area this week, and temperatures may exceed freezing Thursday and Friday. This ridge of high pressure will slowly be moving east though, allowing stormy and colder weather to settle into the area during the weekend. Expect a chance of precipitation to begin on Saturday, possibly in the form of rain. Precipitation is expected to increase on Sunday, and any mixed precipitation will likely change over to all snow.

Discussion:
The map in the left panel of the figure shows the forecast weather pattern for Friday. Each individual line is the result of a different model simulation, and the yellow line in the middle is the mean. This gives an indication of the uncertainty in the weather forecast. The closer the lines are together, the more certain the weather forecast. The 2 different sets of lines (red and blue) are forecast values for 2 different pressure values. An upward "bulge" in the lines means high pressure, and downward "bulge" means lower pressure. For Friday, it is fairly certain that there will be a ridge of high pressure in place for the Whitehorse area.

However, for Sunday, a downward bulge is present just west of Whitehorse, meaning low pressure, unsettled conditions, and cooler temperatures. Notice the blue lines are not as close together though, and look more "spaghetti" like. This means there is a lot of uncertainty in the weather forecasts for Sunday still.

Weather in the Yukon

Weather forecast models are agreeing that the cold pattern currently in the Yukon will be reversing, and that temperatures will be above average next weekend.

The map on the right shows the temperature departures from average in colors about 1.5 km above the Earth's surface. The approximate location of Whitehorse is circled in black. Red shadings mean above average temperatures can be expected while blue shadings mean below average temperatures can be expected. At ~1.5km above the ground when you arrive, temperatures will be running 10-15 degrees Celsius (18-27 degrees Fahrenheit) above average! They will not be as strong at the ground, because snow cover helps moderate temperatures, but nonetheless they will be considerably above average. Currently, there is about 9 inches of snow on the ground at Whitehorse Airport.

HOWEVER, if you notice the arrow labeled 'Storm Track', you may have already deduced that the warm weather may come with a price. Although highly uncertain at this time, forecast models are calling for precipitation to begin late on Saturday the 17th, ending early on Monday the 19th. It is possible that precipitation may fall in the form of rain initially, but it is still too early to tell.

FYI, here is the average weather for Whitehorse, Yukon:
Average low, high = -7.6, +8 deg F
Coldest, warmest ever = -62, +48 deg F
Coldest wind chill = -78 deg F
Average wind speed = 8 mph
Maximum wind gust = 62 mph
Probability that temperature will get above freezing on any given day = 15%
Probability that temperature will fall below 0 deg F on any given day = 61%
Probability that snow will be on ground on any given day = 100%
Probability of measurable snow falling on any given day = 39%
Most snow falling on any one day = 5.5 inches
Average snow depth on ground = 11 inches
Greatest snow depth ever on ground = 33.86 inches

The Return to Nuuk

Synopsis...An intensifying low pressure will strengthen the pressure gradients a bit on Tuesday, increasing northerly winds to around 30 knots at times.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Light and variable winds of less than 10 knots increasing to around 30 knots by 00 UTC Wed. Winds of 30-35 knots possible, strongest near the Greenland coast on Wednesday. Air temperatures 3-6 deg C.

Gale Warning for Davis Strait

*** Weather Office Canada has issued a gale warning for the southern half of the Davis Strait. A gale warning means winds are expected to reach 34-47 knots. ***

Synopsis...A 977 mb low pressure will be moving east out of the Hudson Strait. It will stay well south of the Davis Strait, however the pressure gradient will be strong enough to cause gale force winds late Saturday and Sunday. Conditions will improve Monday and stay good through Tuesday.

The rest of today, tonight, and Sunday...Increasing clouds. A chance of rain, sleet, or snow, but most of it will stay south of the area. Easterly winds increasing to 20 knots by 00 UTC Sunday. Winds becoming northerly and increasing to around 30 knots in most locations from around 09 UTC Sunday - 00 UTC Monday. Strongest winds will be further south with lighter winds north of the Davis Strait. Significant wave heights expected to reach 3-3.5 meters. Air temperatures 2 deg C west to 4 deg C east.

Monday...North winds of 30 knots gradually decreasing to 10 knots by days end. Air temperatures 1-3 deg C.

Outlook...Conditions are looking good on Tuesday.

Possible gales developing late Saturday

** Gale force winds are possible, especially south of the Davis Strait late Saturday and Sunday **

Synopsis...A low pressure with a forecast minimum sea level pressure of ~980 mb will be moving south of the Davis Strait late Saturday and Sunday. It will likely be close enough to cause gale force winds, especially toward the south and also in the western Davis Strait near the coast of Baffin Island.

Saturday...Partly cloudy with light and variable winds of generally less than 10 knots. Increasing clouds and winds late, with easterly winds of 30 knots developing by 00 UTC 9/21 (Sunday) south of the Davis Strait. Air temperatures around 1-3 deg C.

Sunday...Windy with rain, sleet, or snow showers possible. Winds becoming out of the north, possibly reaching gale strength. Sustained winds are expected to be around 30-35 knots with higher gusts in a line from the Davis Strait south. Significant wave heights may reach 4 meters south. Air temperatures ranging from 1 deg C west to 4 deg C east.

Low beginning to move away

*** Weather Office Canada has discontinued all gale warnings for the northern Brevoort Seas and Davis Strait ***

* Attached is a satellite image of the low pressure (red arrow points to it), its forecast track (green arrow), and the approximate area where the Knorr is located now (blue circle). The low is wound up pretty nicely and almost has an eye. The strongest winds are being reported south and southeast of its center, with reports of 50+ knot winds. *

Synopsis...A low pressure of ~977 mb is currently located at ~63N,63W, and is moving to the southeast. Strongest winds are to the south of the low center, while winds of ~30 knots are being reported on the northwest side. Conditions will slowly start to improve as the low moves away.

The rest of today, tonight, and Friday...Northerly winds of 30-35 knots near the Baffin Island coast are expected to continue until about 03 UTC tonight (9/19). Otherwise winds will become northerly everywhere but will still be around 20 knots through tomorrow (Friday). Scattered rain, sleet, or snow showers, with peaks of sun (or stars) becoming more frequent. Significant wave heights of 3+ meters possible, especially south, but decreasing to 1-2 meters Friday. Air temperatures ranging from 1 deg C northwest to 6 deg C southeast.

Saturday...Partly cloudy, increasing clouds late. Light and variable winds early, northerly winds may pick late as a low pressure moves closer to the area. The low pressure is currently forecast to miss the area, but will keep an eye on it. Cool with air temperatures ranging from 0-4 deg C.

Storm rapidly approaching

*** Weather Office Canada has issued a gale warning for the following areas: Entire Brevoort Sea, West Labrador Sea, Eastern Davis Strait ***

** Gale force winds imminent in most areas over the next 36 hours. Storm force winds possible. **

* Attached is a map showing the forecast tracks from the top operation models. The blue dot is where the Knorr is now. The red boxes are where the highest winds are forecast. *

Synopsis...Analyses and satellite images indicate that a 978 mb low is currently near the mouth of the Hudson Strait. A mesoscale model forecasts the low to strengthen to a maximum strength of about 974 mb in about 12-15 hours as it moves northeast into the Labrador Sea. At about 63 deg N, 63 deg W, the low pressure will begin moving southeast. See the attached map. Strongest winds are expected to be northwest, along, and southeast of the storm track.

The rest of today, tonight, and Thursday...Widespread rain, possibly mixed with sleet or snow. Easterly winds first picking up in the southwest waters, then northerly winds picking up in the western Davis Strait. Sustained winds should begin to exceed 30 knots in the western Davis Strait between 00-06 UTC 9/18 (Thurs). The strongest winds will be southeast of its center with storm force winds most probable here, with gale force winds almost certain near Baffin Island and the western Davis Strait. Air temperatures ranging from 1 deg C west to 7 deg C southeast. Significant wave heights 4-5 meters in the western Davis Strait, 6-7 meters southeast of the low center, and 2-3.5 meters elsewhere.

Friday...Gradually improving conditions. Northerly winds, ranging from 40 knots south to 25 knots north. Scattered rain, sleet, or snow showers. Air temperatures cooling to 2-4 deg C.

Next storm set to hit Thursday

** Storm force winds possible on Thursday **

Synopsis...A low pressure over Baffin Island will continue to weaken, leaving a few showers over the area through Wednesday with windy conditions near the mouth of the Hudson Strait. Models are beginning to come to a consensus with the next low pressure system to affect the area on Thursday. Current forecasts place a 976 mb low pressure center just south of the Davis Strait by 12 UTC Thursday the 18th.

Wednesday...Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Increasing clouds late, with rain likely in the south late. Light and variable winds of around 10 knots. Wind becoming southerly southeast of the Davis Strait and increasing to 30 knots late. Air temperatures ~2 deg C west, but warming to 6-7 deg C southeast as warm air begins to advect in ahead of the low pressure system.

Thursday...Windy. Rainy. Choppy. Rain possibly mixed with sleet or snow west, especially in the heavier showers. Sustained wind will be over 40 knots, especially in the southern and western waters. Gale force winds likely, storm force winds are possible. Air temperatures 3-6 deg C. Details of this storm may change, look for the next update ~19 UTC tomorrow.

Relatively calm....for now

Synopsis...A low pressure rapidly deepened over the southeast Davis Strait Sunday, and data on board the Knorr showed peak winds of over 50 knots with a minimum pressure of 985 mb. A weak low pressure is forecast to affect the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, but winds should remain relatively light. Forecast models currently show the possibility that a strong low pressure will affect the area on Thursday, which if it develops as predicted, would bring gale force winds.

Tuesday...Increasing clouds with scattered showers developing. Winds generally out of the south at less than 10 knots, except near the Hudson Strait where winds will be out of the west at around 30 knots. Warmer with highs near 4 deg C west, and 6 deg C east.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Air temperatures around 3 deg C west, to 5 deg C east. Light winds except south near the Hudson Strait, with west winds again around 30 knots.

Outlook...Gale force winds are possible on Thursday. Uncertainty is pretty high still.

Gale Warning for Southeastern Davis Strait

*** Weather Office Canada has issued a gale warning in the northern half of East Brevoort, southeast of the Davis Strait. 'Gale' force winds of 34 to 47 knots are occurring in this marine area.

Synopsis...A low pressure with a central minimum pressure of ~987 mb has developed and moved into the region, bringing gale force winds, high seas, and rain. Winds will be gradually decreasing overnight and throughout the day on Monday.

Sunday night and Monday...High wind, high seas, and rain showers. Strongest winds in the southeastern Davis Strait, with southeast winds sustained at up to 35-40 knots with higher gusts. Peak winds should occur between 15-21 UTC. As the low pressure and associated cold front pass, winds will switch to westerly and will be sustained at around 30-35 knots with higher gusts in most regions, mainly between 18 UTC Sunday 9/14 and 06 UTC Monday 9/15. Significant wave heights will be around 3 meters in most locations, and may locally exceed 4 meters, with the peak occurring around 00 UTC 9/15 in the eastern Strait. Conditions will be improving throughout the day Monday, with decreasing clouds and winds. Cooler air temperatures, with temperatures around 2 deg C west to 4 deg C east.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Winds becoming southerly around 10 knots. Air temperatures 2-4 deg C. North winds of 25-30 knots will possibly be affecting the southeastern strait later in the day as the remnants of hurricane Ike move south of the area.

Outlook...Conditions will be remaining rather unsettled.

Low pressure moving in

Synopsis...Analysis maps and satellite images indicate that a weak area of low pressure has developed in the Hudson Strait. This low pressure will move into the Davis Strait over the next 24 hours. Although weak, it will be strong enough to cause breezy conditions with rain and/or snow showers.

Sunday...Windy with periods of rain showers. Rain showers may possibly mix with sleet or snow northwest. Winds out of the south early, then changing to northerly as the low pressure passes. Sustained winds may reach gale strength (34+ knots) in the Davis Strait, but will generally be sustained at 20-30 knots in most locations with higher gusts. Strongest winds expected between 18 UTC 9/14 and 6 UTC 9/15. Roughest seas are expected to be in the eastern strait between 15-23 UTC with 2-3 meter significant wave heights expected. Air temperatures ranging from ~2 deg C northwest to 6 deg C southeast.

Monday...Improving conditions. Winds decreasing to 10-20 knots. Air temperatures 2-4 deg C.

Outlook...Today's forecast model runs are taking the remnants of Hurricane Ike south of the region. However, winds may still pick up as it passes to the south. Uncertainty is still very high at this time.

Certainly uncertain

Synopsis...As the energy from hurricane Ike enters the jet stream, forecast models are having a very tough time with even short term forecasts leaving exceptionally high uncertainty in the forecasts for the next several days.

Saturday...Partly to mostly cloudy, with a chance of fog in the morning, especially west. Wind becoming southerly at 10-20 knots in most areas, with stronger winds possible just north of the Davis Strait. Light rain showers possible. Air temperatures ranging from 2-5 deg C, warmest toward the west.

Sunday...A fair possibility exists for the development of a low pressure system near the Davis Strait, although there is not good agreement in the different forecast models or even in the same forecast models between runs. If one develops, there could be winds around 30 knots with rain possibly mixed with snow showers likely. Otherwise rain showers are still likely, but the winds would be lower and air temperatures slightly warmer.

Outlook...Several major storms will be passing by closely, but it is too early to determine their exact locations at this point. It is a pretty good bet at least one of these will affect the region, probably by midweek.

Slowly getting stormier

Synopsis...A weak low pressure moving out of the Hudson Strait will be enough to increase southerly winds in the western Davis Strait on late Friday and throughout Saturday. A possible stronger low pressure is forecast to hit the region Monday or Tuesday.

Friday...While 20-25 knot winds out of the north in the southeastern Davis strait will be gradually diminishing, southerly winds will start to increase in the western strait in response to a weak low pressure. Skies will be mostly cloudy with a slight chance of an isolated rain shower. Air temperatures about 2-5 deg C.

Saturday...Windy in the western Davis Strait, with southerly winds increasing to 20-30 knots. Winds weakest in the eastern strait, with magnitudes of about 5-10 knots. Rain showers are also likely. Air temperatures about 2-5 deg C. Significant wave heights possibly 1-2 meters in the western strait.

Outlook...Still watching a possible major low pressure system to affect the area early next week which may be the remnants of hurricane Ike. Forecast uncertainty is high at this time.

Things still generally good

Synopsis...A series of low pressure centers spinning near Hudson Bay will provide periods of increased cloud cover with a slight chance of rain showers the next few days. Winds should stay generally light, with the exception of the eastern Davis Strait where winds will once again be picking up on Thursday due to a low pressure passing well to the south.

Thursday...Mostly cloudy, with a slight chance of rain showers. Variable winds of less than 10 knots, except northerly winds picking up in the eastern strait to around 20 knots late. Air temperatures ranging from 3-6 deg C, coolest toward the west. Significant wave heights less than 1 meter, except possibly reaching 1 meter by days end in the eastern strait.

Friday...Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers not out of the question. Variable winds less than 15 knots except in the eastern strait where they could be sustained at 20-25 knots out of the north. Significant wave heights could reach over 2 meters in the extreme southeastern strait, and remaining less than 1 meter west. Air temperatures 2-5 deg C.

Outlook...Eyes will be on the latest forecast model runs of a large low pressure system to possibly affect the area Monday. Uncertainty is still high at this time, however it has been in 2 consecutive model runs.

Nothin' but calm weather on the horizon

Synopsis...Good weather will be continuing into the foreseeable future with no major weather systems on the way. Other than a little forecaster boredom in having nothing to predict, there are no major concerns at this time.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy with morning fog possible. Light northerly winds of 5-10 knots, except possibly in the eastern strait where winds may reach around 15 knots at times in response to a low pressure system passing well to the south. Air temperatures ranging around 2-4 deg C.

Thursday...Partly cloudy with morning fog possible. Light northerly winds of 5-10 knots everywhere. Air temperatures ranging around 2-4 deg C.

Outlook...No changes until possibly the weekend.

Calm days ahead

Synopsis...There are no major weather systems in the forecast over the next few days, leaving light winds, calm seas, and peaks of sunshine. Light winds will increase the likelihood for fog. Northerly winds may increase from time to time in the eastern Strait due to low pressure systems passing well south of the area.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy with a few light rain showers not out of the question. Foggy conditions possible. High temperatures ~4 deg C. Variable winds of 5-10 knots. Northerly winds may increase to around 15 knots in the eastern strait during the afternoon.

Wednesday...Partly clouds with generally light winds and fog possible. High temperatures around 4 deg C. Northerly winds may once again be stronger in the eastern strait with speeds of around 15-20 knots.

Outlook...No weather pattern changes anticipated at this time.